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If your 850 is like my XC70, the mud flap is attached to another plastic inner fender liner. There may be a metal fender lip in between? Unfortunately, the large diameter pop rivet draws these pieces together when it expands on the blind inside. With snow accumulation, or other disturbances, the pop rivet works its way loose. When I installed mine, I was just able to get a pop rivet washer over the inside rivet before using the pop rivet gun, hoping that it would better distrubute the forces and prevent the rivet head from coming loose. I guess it might be possible to install a stainless steel bolt, washer and nut if you can reach inside? Best of luck.
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Cam a.k.a. CVOLVO.COM
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