Got it figured out: took apart the entire back panel (it just sort of pops off, much easier than my v70 or my old 745), sprayed it with lube (didn't fix), removed and opened the entire lock/latch assembly. Turns out that there is a piston-like thing that slides (or should slide) to engage the latch when the car is unlocked. That was not moving. Cleaned it off (lots of gunk after almost 10 years), sprayed with silicone lubricant (Lithium grease seems too heavy), tested, put it back together, and problem solved (for now). Thanks again!
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