This MIGHT be what was described to me as the lawnmower effect.
I had a very similar situation also in the cold etc..and the car just would not start..i had fuel i had spark and all the good bits..
Turns out what what happend was that the oil had drained away from the lifters and the head and when you try and start it now the lifter are NOT full of oil so the valves are not opening as much as they should creating a low compression situation and not firing up the engine,
Another of symptom was that mine cranked much much faster and freer under these conditions.
The fix for mine was to battery jump the battery with another car running and floor the gas pedal on the volvo as that shuts off the injectors and just crank that puppy..and i mean 2-3 minutes continuously to build up that oil pressure and move that oil around, and you dont want the injectors working because that would flood the plugs and wash the cylinder walls off of any oil which would be bad.

Hope this helps.