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Yes, this thread belongs in OPINIONS, but anyway......
The momentum and power of the fuel business is enormous and complex. Not easy to make a radical change, or even a mid-course correction.
One set of numbers that brought that to light came from the explosoin of the BP plant in nearby Texas City not long ago. The plant processes 430,000 barrels of crude oil a day, every day. Run the numbers on that.
Plus, the plant produced 30,000 gallons (or was it barrels?) of gasoline a day, which was 3% of the USA usage. Run those numbers, too. Gives an idea of the quantity of oil we use, and the amount of energy that oil provides.
Another facet is the OPEC folks. Alternative fuels, and even alternative oil sources, require large capital investments, which make economic sense only if the oil-provided energy is priced high.
It's easy to see this with regards to the oil shale and oil sands sourcing. With oil per barrel high, like now, that source makes sense, but for one trap:
The OPEC nations can drop the oil price overnight by raising output, thus making the capital investment value drop too. So, no one even starts down that path.
The global situation is now different, and OPEC raising output may not have the effect it would have 5 years ago. One result is that in order to sell an SUV the dealers are pushing rebates and discounts and all sorts of price cuts.
To sell a hybrid the dealers are not even spending a dime on advertising since the demand is high. Price cuts? No, more likely price premium.
Economics will provide the ultimate force to change the global source of energy. Geopolitics will enter, and you can see things happening even now. It will be an auction battle, not unlike a table stakes poker game. How much can you bid? Is that more than the other guy has?
Sweet dreams,
Bob
:>)
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