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Here's what I recommend:
Drive the car another 1000 miles max preferably less- then change you oil.
The water warning is usually at .10%. Yours at almost .5% is indeed quite high.
They tell you to change your oil for this reason, and leave it at that.
Your viscosity is artificially high, because your oil is quite oxidized. They should have told you to "analyze operating conditions"...and I think change your oil for this. Also the high nitration should have given off the same warning.
The amazing thing to me that I failed to notice/mention before is the TBN is very low.
It's really like the oil is quite old and tired.
As an example I go 10,000 miles on my turbo oil changes and my oil 7-8% oxidized, NOX at 20% at TBN at 11....and I consider the oil well spent.
How were the dirt and wear metal numbers?
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