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I'd say it's electrical. Could well be the relay if it's the original one.
But start by checking fuse #11 for clean, tight contact on the fuse ends. I'm not sure what intermittent contact would do there, but that's the OD circuit fuse.
Might also be the wire from the relay to the solenoid grounding out under the car. That would light the "upshift" arrow and drop the OD solenoid. Seems like it should blow fuse 11 though, if the relay were energized at the time it touched ground.
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Bruce Young '93 940-NA (current) — 240s (one V8) — 140s — 122s — since '63.
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